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可持续发展:新事物还是旧事物?

November 18, 2015 by Charles Eisenstein

November 2015


 

两年前,我的儿子马修(Matthew)14岁,那年他长高了6英寸。去年,他只长了两英寸,而今年只长了半英寸。我应该为此担心吗?

当然不应该。在成熟发张过程中的某个阶段,可量化的身体增长会减缓或停止,一种新的发展模式会取而代之。

假设我不明白这一点,而是给马修喂食增长激素以千方百计地使他长高。再假设我的努力伤害了他的健康,耗尽了我的资源。这时候,我可能会说:“我要寻找一种方法使得这种增长是可持续的,或许我可以使用草药激素(herbal hormones)。”

我们文明的发展在本质上也处于一个类似的转变点。数千年来,我们一直都在增长——人口、能源消耗、耕地、数据资料、经济产量。今天的我们开始意识到这种增长不再可能了,也不再可取了;维持这种增长只会对人类和地球造成越来越大的成本。

是时候转变发展模式了,转向一种强调质量而非数量、强调更好而非更多的发展。我希望我们的政策精英们会明白这一点。新的“联合国可持续发展目标”(U.N. Sustainable Development Goals)传达了对环境真正的关怀,这就是最好的例证。然而,这些目标同时也没有摆脱经济增长的旧观念——增加GDP,增加工业基础设施、道路、港口等——而没有考虑是否有其他的发展方式可以更好地实现扶贫和生态可持续性的目标。

可持续发展目标规定,“贫困国家”摆脱贫困的方法就是发展出口行业以增加GDP(目标是70%的增长率)。不幸的是,这一策略在很多国家所带来的结果是贫困加剧而非减少。财富经常最终会落到当地精英的手中及榨取资源的公司和借钱谋发展的金融机构手中。除了保证投资者会榨取远远超过他们投入的金钱这种方式,还有什么别的方法能够使一个国家更能吸引投资者的目光呢?怪不得,尽管自1990年以来全球GDP增长了近2倍,但遭受食品不安全的总人数也随之增加,许多国家的中产阶级已停止增加甚至开始萎缩。

然后就是所产生的环境后果。如果这些国家出口的不是木材、矿产品和其他的自然资源、劳动力,那么它们还能出口什么?公路和港口还会有什么其他用途?可持续发展目标旧调重弹却希望结果不同——这真是荒唐至极啊。

仔细审视一下经济增长的内涵,我们就会很容易明白这一点。按照传统的衡量方法,经济增长指的就是兑换成金钱的商品和服务。这就意味着,当土著农民或自给自足的村民们停止种植和分享自己的食物、停止建造自己的房子、停止制造自己的娱乐,转而去工厂或种植园工作并为这些买单之时,GDP增加了,他们也被认为富裕了。他们的现金收入可能从一天零美元上升到5美元,但是他们现在却受到全球市场的支配。当商品价格暴跌之时(就像是现在),当他们国家的货币贬值之时(就像是现在),当地物价上涨,他们陷入赤贫。如果他们能够对全球商品经济保持一定的独立性,那么这种情况就不会发生。

只有我们把标准的发展模式视为理所当然之时,经济增长才会成为缓解贫困的必要手段。在一个以金钱作为付息债务的体系中,贫富差距必然会增加,除非收入(偿还债务利息的能力)的增长速度超过债务的增长速度。许多国家和人民的收入现在正在下降,只剩下一种方法可以偿还债务:缩减开支。缩减开支和(传统)发展是同一个事物的两面。两者都有助于一个国家出口财富。缩减开支的规定——公共资产私有化、取消贸易壁垒(trade barriers)、取消劳工保护、解除管制(deregulation)、缩减退休金——和经济发展的新的自由规定完全是相同的。这些措施都会使一个国家更具有投资吸引力。

因此,让我们不要再把这一体系视为理所当然了。首先,让我们通过以下方式解决贫困问题:鼓励远离全球市场的复原力和独立性,特别是通过当地食物自治、当地资源控制、分散式政治机构、不以创造外汇为基础的分散式基础设施。其次,让我们消除货币化冲动的潜在驱动力——自20世纪60年代明目张胆的殖民主义结束以来,国家和私人债务一致都是殖民主义的首要工具(值得称赞的是,可持续发展目标提到了减少债务,这一点需要大规模实现)。再次,让我们谈一谈金融系统的根本改革,这一破碎的、基于债务的系统在驱动经济增长的同时也需要依赖经济增长来存活。这一系统使每个人陷入和其他人的竞争之中,导致了一种“鱼死网破”(“race to the bottom”)的竞争模式,而这种竞争永远不会终止,直到整个地球都被转化为产品。

从化学增长刺激转向草药增长刺激(“绿色”或“可持续”发展)无法解决这一问题。如果发展等同于增长,那么“可持续发展”本身就是一个矛盾。贫困和生态灭绝息息相关。是时候过渡到另一个世界了,一个财富不在意味着越来越多的世界。


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